Figure 6

Host immunity and antigenic history of the virus population. Contour lines represent the state of host immunity at the end of the 40-year simulation. They show the mean risk of infection (as a percentage) after a random host in the population encounters a virus bearing a particular antigenic phenotype. Contour lines are spaced in intervals of 2.5%. Bubbles represent a sample of antigenic phenotypes present at the end of the 40-year simulation. The area of each bubble is proportional to the number of samples with this phenotype. Lines leading into these bubbles show past antigenic history. The current phenotypes rapidly coalesce to a trunk phenotype. The movement of the virus population from the left to the center of the figure can be seen from the antigenic history. At the end of the simulation, several virus phenotypes exist with similar antigenic locations; all of these phenotypes lie significantly ahead of the peak of host immunity.