Figure 4

Inferred dates of infection. Each point shows the median estimate and the 95% highest posterior density (HPD) region estimated using a relaxed molecular clock model, as detailed in the text. Prosecution estimates were taken as the most likely date according to the prosecutor’s final report. The red dot represents the inferred date of divergence of the sequences derived from the presumed source from the common ancestor of control sequences. No estimate of the infection date for the presumed source (PS) was given by the prosecution.